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name: assumption-and-risk-hunter description: Surfaces hidden assumptions and prioritizes systemic risks to prevent project failure. Use after initial designs or specifications. triggers: [spec-freeze-prep, design-review, pre-migration-audit] outputs: [risk-log, assumption-validation-plan]

Assumption and Risk Hunter

Purpose

Acts as a "red team" for plans and specifications. It identifies what we think is true but haven't verified, and what could go wrong if those assumptions fail.

When to use this skill

• After an initial MVP design or specification is drafted
• Before moving from "Planning" to "Execution" phase
• Before executing a high-risk migration or cutover

Hunting Steps

1. Surface Implicit Assumptions: Look for phrases like "assuming X", "users will...", "it should...".
2. Rank Risks: Evaluate each risk based on its Probability and its Impact on the project goals.
3. Identify Irreversible Decisions: Flag "one-way doors" that are hard to undo once implemented.
4. Do Not Solve Yet: Stay in "Hunter" mode. The goal is detection, not remediation.

Decision Tree

Copyflowchart TD
    A[Review Design/Spec] --> B{Unverified Assumptions?}
    B -->|Yes| C[Add to Assumption Log]
    B -->|No| D{Single Point of Failure?}
    D -->|Yes| E[Log as Critical Risk]
    D -->|No| F{Irreversible Change?}
    F -->|Yes| G[Log as High-Impact Risk]
    F -->|No| H[Approve for Execution]

Review Checklist

1. Brutal Honesty: Does the risk log include "taboo" risks (e.g., "The legacy API is completely broken")?
2. Specifics: Are risks tied to specific spec IDs or code modules?
3. Externalities: Are dependencies on 3rd party services or other teams accounted for?
4. Validity: Has the assumption been tested or is it just "developer intuition"?

How to provide feedback

• Be specific: "The risk 'DB is slow' is too vague."
• Explain why: "Vague risks cannot be mitigated with a validation plan."
• Suggest alternatives: "Replace with: 'PostgreSQL instance version is outdated, may not support JSONB indexing used in REQ-4'."

Brutal honesty over optimism.