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name: trend-analysis description: Frameworks for identifying, evaluating, and acting on trends. Use when researching trends, generating trend-based content ideas, or timing content publication.

Trend Analysis Skill

Frameworks and techniques for identifying emerging trends and turning them into content opportunities.

The Trend Lifecycle

Copy          Discovery → Growth → Peak → Decline → Maturity
              ↑          ↑       ↑       ↑          ↑
            Early    Rising   Hot   Saturated  Evergreen
           Adopters  Stars   Topic   Takes     Reference

Phase Characteristics

Trend Identification Signals

Early Stage Signals (High Value)

• Questions appearing in niche forums
• "What is X?" search patterns rising
• Early adopter communities buzzing
• First mainstream article appears
• Investors starting to mention

Growth Stage Signals

• Multiple articles/podcasts covering
• Debates about approach/implementation
• "How to X" content proliferating
• Job postings mentioning topic
• Conference sessions being added

Peak Stage Signals

• Everyone has an opinion
• Backlash articles appearing
• "Is X overhyped?" pieces
• Mainstream media coverage
• Parody/meme content

Decline Signals

• "X is dead" articles
• Conversation shifts to "what's next"
• New topic replacing it
• Only laggards still discovering
• Best practices established

Trend Evaluation Framework

TEMPO Analysis

T - Timing

• Where in the lifecycle?
• How long until peak?
• When is the optimal moment to publish?

E - Evidence

• What data supports this trend?
• How strong are the signals?
• Are sources credible?

M - Momentum

• Is discussion accelerating?
• What's the velocity of new content?
• Are influencers engaging?

P - Positioning

• How does user's expertise align?
• What unique angle is available?
• Can they add genuine value?

O - Opportunity

• What content formats fit?
• What's the competition like?
• What's the upside?

Scoring Matrix

Interpretation:

• 4.0+ : Excellent opportunity, act now
• 3.0-4.0 : Good opportunity, plan content
• 2.0-3.0 : Monitor, may improve
• <2.0 : Pass or wait

Content Timing Strategy

Optimal Timing by Content Type

Timing Considerations

• Speed vs. Quality: Early phases favor speed; peak favors quality
• Expertise Match: Only go early if you genuinely know the topic
• Audience Readiness: Are your followers aware of this trend?
• Platform Fit: LinkedIn may lag Twitter by days/weeks

Research Techniques

Search Pattern Variations

Copy[topic] + trends
[topic] + what's changing
[topic] + controversy
[topic] + vs [alternative]
[topic] + dead
[topic] + future
[topic] + predictions 2026
[topic] + hot take
why [topic] matters
[topic] + problem
[topic] + mistake

Source Prioritization

1. Leading Indicators

   • Hacker News discussions
   • Substack newsletters
   • Early-adopter Twitter/X
   • Reddit niche communities

2. Confirming Indicators

   • Industry publications
   • Tech news sites
   • Mainstream business press
   • Conference agendas

3. Lagging Indicators

   • General news coverage
   • LinkedIn trending
   • "What is X" articles
   • Corporate announcements

Trend-to-Content Mapping

From Trend to Article Angle

Trend: AI code assistants changing developer workflows

Possible Angles:

1. "The hidden cost of AI-assisted coding" (contrarian)
2. "How I use [tool] without losing my skills" (personal/practical)
3. "5 tasks where AI assistants fail completely" (specific/surprising)
4. "The junior developer's guide to AI coding tools" (audience-specific)
5. "AI coding tools: 3 months later" (retrospective)

Angle Selection Criteria

• Uniqueness: Am I saying something new?
• Evidence: Can I back this up?
• Voice Match: Is this how I naturally think?
• Audience Value: Does my audience need this?
• Timeliness: Why now specifically?

Memory Integration for Trends

What to Store

Store in semantic memory:

• Trend name and current phase
• Key sources/evidence
• Optimal content angles
• Timing recommendations

Example:

CopyCategory: ["trends", "developer-tools"]
Content: "AI code assistant trend in growth phase (Jan 2026).
Evidence: HN discussions up 300% QoQ, GitHub Copilot surpassed
1M users. Best angles: productivity claims (contrarian),
skill development concerns, workflow integration tips.
Optimal timing: next 4-6 weeks before peak saturation."

What to Query

Before trend research:

• Past trends in this space
• User's expertise areas
• Previous content on related topics

Common Trend Research Mistakes

1. Confirmation Bias - Only looking for trends you want to find
2. Echo Chamber - Relying on single source/community
3. Recency Bias - Assuming new = trending
4. Trend Conflation - Combining separate trends into one
5. Peak Blindness - Missing that peak has passed
6. Evergreen Confusion - Calling persistent topics "trends"

Trend Report Template

Copy# Trend Report: [Industry/Topic]
Generated: [Date]
Research Depth: [Quick/Standard/Deep]

## Executive Summary
[2-3 sentence overview of findings]

## Top Trends

### 1. [Trend Name]
- **Phase**: Discovery/Growth/Peak/Decline
- **TEMPO Score**: X.X/5.0
- **Evidence**: [Brief summary with sources]
- **Your Angle**: [Recommended approach]
- **Timing**: [When to act]
- **Content Recommendation**: [Specific suggestion]

### 2. [Trend Name]
[Same structure]

## Quick Opportunities
[Bullet list of immediate actions]

## Watch List
[Emerging topics to monitor]

## Not Worth Pursuing
[Trends that don't fit or are saturated]