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name: pre-mortem-kill-criteria description: Use before launching products or signing contracts, when needing to combat sunk cost fallacy, or when standard pre-mortems fail to change behavior

Pre-Mortems with Kill Criteria

Overview

An enhancement to the standard pre-mortem that moves beyond simply imagining failure to establishing pre-committed actions based on specific negative signals.

Core principle: Thinking about failure isn't enough; you must commit to actions BEFORE you see the signals.

The Process

Copy┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. MENTAL TIME TRAVEL                                          │
│     Fast forward: Imagine the project has FAILED                │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  2. SIGNAL IDENTIFICATION                                       │
│     "What early clues indicated the failure?"                   │
│     List specific, observable signals                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  3. DEFINE KILL CRITERIA                                        │
│     Convert clues into measurable thresholds                    │
│     Example: "CPA > $50" or "Customer won't demo"               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  4. PRE-COMMITMENT                                              │
│     Establish rule: "If [Criteria] occurs, we [Kill/Pivot]"     │
│     Write it down and share with team                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  5. ACTIVE MONITORING                                           │
│     Scan for criteria during execution                          │
│     Act immediately when triggered                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Principles

Common Mistakes

• Doing a pre-mortem but not changing the plan
• Identifying risks without setting a specific stop trigger
• Rationalizing signals when they appear ("it's different this time")

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Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital, WSOP Champion) via Lenny's Podcast