---

name: trace description: Root cause analysis for complex bugs. Use when initial fix fails or incident is severe. Traces Effect → Cause → Root with confidence levels and prevention hierarchy.

trace

Root cause analysis when surface fixes fail.

When to Use

1. Timeline

CopyHH:MM - [Event] - [System state] - [Action taken]

Note: detection time vs. start time (how long hidden?)

2. Five Whys

CopyEffect: [What users/systems experienced]

Why 1: [Immediate cause] (X-Y% confident)
Why 2: [Underlying mechanism] (X-Y% confident)
Why 3: [System/process gap] (X-Y% confident)
Why 4: [Organizational factor] (X-Y% confident)
Why 5: [Root cause] (X-Y% confident)

Gates: < 70% any level → request logs/reproduction Root cause = deepest answer with ≥70% confidence

3. Contributing Factors

Beyond root cause, what amplified impact?

Process: Monitoring gaps, testing gaps, review gaps People: Unclear ownership, missing runbooks Technical: Dependency failures, capacity limits, config drift Context: Traffic patterns, deployment timing, external factors

List 2-4 factors with specific mechanisms.

Tools: Ishikawa for categorization, Iceberg for deep structure analysis.

4. Impact

Users: Count, experience, business cost (quantified) Systems: Downstream effects, data integrity, security

5. Prevention Hierarchy

Immediate (< 1 week)

Copy1. [Code/config change]
   File: [path:line]
   Verification: [how to confirm]
   Owner: [who]

Short-Term (< 1 month)

Copy1. [Alert/test/automation]
   Trigger: [when it fires]
   Owner: [who]

Long-Term (< 1 quarter)

Copy1. [Architectural change]
   Problem class: [what it prevents]
   Effort: [story points]
   Owner: [who]

Each tier needs ≥1 item.

6. Blameless

See soul/references/blameless.md

Focus on system gaps, not individual mistakes.

Output

Copy# Incident: [Title]

## Timeline
[Detection → Resolution]

## Five Whys
[With confidence per level]

## Contributing Factors
[2-4 items]

## Impact
[Quantified]

## Prevention
[Immediate / Short-Term / Long-Term]

## Top 3 Actions
1. [Task] | Owner: [Name] | Due: [Date]
2. ...
3. ...

Anti-Patterns